Ghana’s cocoa sector may be heading towards a labour crisis before it faces a production crisis, according to new research presented at a Research and Policy Breakfast in Accra.
The study, titled “Towards a Cocoa Producer-Focused Climate Policy in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana,” suggests that climate change is increasingly undermining the health, work capacity, and resilience of cocoa farmers, raising concerns about the future sustainability of cocoa production in West Africa.
For decades, climate change discussions in the cocoa sector have focused largely on declining yields, pests, diseases, and deforestation. However, researchers now argue that an equally important but often overlooked challenge is emerging: the growing impact of climate change on the people who produce cocoa.
Presenting the findings, Dr. Albert Arhin of the Institute for Rural Development and Innovation Studies (IRDIS) at the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST) noted that climate adaptation policies have traditionally concentrated on protecting cocoa trees and boosting productivity, while paying far less attention to the wellbeing of cocoa farmers themselves.
“Our evidence suggests that climate change is not only affecting cocoa production through the cocoa tree. It is increasingly affecting production through farmers’ health, labour productivity, and adaptive capacity. If cocoa producers become less healthy, less productive, and less willing to remain in farming, the long-term future of the sector is at risk,” he said.
The research was conducted across some cocoa-growing communities in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire using surveys, interviews, focus group discussions, and participatory research activities involving hundreds of cocoa-producing households.
Farmers reported experiencing rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall patterns, declining yields, increasing production costs, and worsening physical exhaustion. Many indicated that extreme heat is reducing the number of hours they can comfortably work on their farms, while others expressed growing anxiety about the future viability of cocoa farming.
Researchers found that climate-related stresses are increasingly creating a chain of effects that extends beyond cocoa production itself. Heat stress contributes to fatigue and reduced labour productivity, which can limit farm management activities and ultimately affect production outcomes. Some farmers, especially youth, also reported considering leaving cocoa farming because of the combined pressures of climate change, rising costs, and declining returns.
The findings come against the backdrop of falling national cocoa production. Ghana’s annual cocoa output, which historically averaged around 800,000 tonnes, has declined to approximately 600,000 tonnes in recent years despite numerous government and industry interventions.
While initiatives such as the Living Income Differential (LID), mass spraying programmes, farm rehabilitation schemes, extension services, and pension programmes have provided important support, researchers argue that these measures alone may not adequately address the growing human impacts of climate change.
The study notes that many farmers continue to face significant financial hardship despite higher cocoa prices. Climate-related yield losses, rising input costs, labour shortages, and adaptation constraints often reduce the benefits of price increases.
To address these challenges, the researchers are calling for a major shift in cocoa policy. Rather than focusing primarily on yields and production, they propose placing farmer resilience at the centre of climate adaptation and sustainability investments.
Recommendations include increased investment in climate adaptation financing, climate-smart water management, farmer health and wellbeing, occupational safety, labour-savingtechnologies, and stronger farmer participation in policy processes. The study also proposes moving beyond traditional productivity-focused interventions towards what researchers describe as a “producer-centred resilience approach” that recognises the central role of farmers in sustaining the cocoa economy.
According to the research team, the sustainability of Ghana’s cocoa sector will depend not only on protecting cocoa farms from climate change but also on protecting the people whose labour makes cocoa production possible. The policy brief argues that climate-resilient cocoa production cannot be achieved without climate-resilient cocoa producers.
The study was supported by the Harvard University Center for African Studies through the Motsepe Presidential Research Accelerator Fund for Africa and forms part of a broader research collaboration involving scholars from Harvard University, KNUST, the Institute for Cocoa and Chocolate Research, the University of Leicester, the University of Oxford, and research partners in Côte d’Ivoire.
Cocoa Value Chain Actors at the policy breakfast described the findings as an important contribution to ongoing debates about climate adaptation, sustainability, and the future competitiveness of Ghana’s cocoa sector.
As climate risks intensify across West Africa, the researchers hope the findings will encourage policymakers, industry actors, and development partners to rethink how resilience is defined and supported within the cocoa economy.
“The future of cocoa production increasingly depends on the future of cocoa producers,” the researchers said.