GMet warns of heat stress, water shortages and bushfires as El Niño develops

The Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) has warned that a developing, very strong El Niño event could bring hotter temperatures, prolonged dry spells and increased dust levels to Ghana through the first half of 2027.

The agency says the phenomenon is likely to worsen dry-season conditions from late November 2026 to March 2027, although sudden heavy rainfall and localised flooding could still occur in parts of southern Ghana.

El Niño is a natural warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences weather patterns, including rainfall and temperatures across West Africa.

According to GMet, observations from its monitoring systems and international climate institutions, including the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), indicate that the event is intensifying.

It is expected to peak between now and January 2027 before gradually weakening during the first half of next year.

GMet says previous El Niño episodes, particularly those of 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16, as well as the moderate event of 2023/24, demonstrate Ghana’s vulnerability to changes in rainfall patterns and their effects on agriculture, water resources, hydroelectric power generation and public health.

The agency forecasts below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country, although some areas could experience above-normal rainfall. These include inland parts of the Greater Accra and Central regions, south-western parts of the Volta and Eastern regions, parts of the Bono and Savannah regions, and north-western parts of the Upper West Region.

Warmer-than-average temperatures are also expected across most of Ghana. However, cooler-than-average conditions are anticipated in the south-west and some parts of the Volta Region, particularly between Ho and Kete Krachi.

GMet projects that the drier and dustier conditions expected during the dry season could increase the risk of bushfires, water shortages and stress on crops and livestock.

The agency has also warned that hot, dry and dusty conditions could increase the seasonal risk of meningitis, particularly in northern Ghana. Heat stress is expected to be most severe between February and April 2027, especially in the northern parts of the country.

However, GMet says the onset and performance of the 2027 rainy seasons remain uncertain, with forecasts to be updated as new climate information becomes available.

As part of precautionary measures, the agency has advised farmers to consult weather updates and agricultural advisories from GMet and the Ministry of Food and Agriculture before planting or replanting.

Farmers have also been encouraged to consider early-maturing and drought-tolerant crop varieties where appropriate and avoid bush burning.

Residents in northern Ghana have been urged to minimise exposure to dust and seek immediate medical attention if they experience symptoms such as fever, severe headache or a stiff neck.

The general public has also been advised to drink enough water during hot periods, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest hours of the day and check on vulnerable people, including older persons, young children and those who are unwell.

GMet has further urged households and communities to conserve water and rely on official sources for weather information.

Despite the forecast of generally below-normal rainfall, communities along the Volta River and residents of flood-prone, low-lying urban areas have been cautioned to remain vigilant.

The agency says short, intense downpours and localised flooding remain possible and has urged residents to follow safety advisories from the National Disaster Management Organisation (NADMO) and the Volta River Authority (VRA).

GMet says it is monitoring the El Niño event daily and will continue to issue updated weather outlooks and regular ten-day agricultural bulletins.

It will also collaborate with stakeholders in disaster management, energy, agriculture, water resources, health, local government, transport and other sectors to support timely, location-specific preparedness and response measures.