A final opinion poll released by Global InfoAnalytics ahead of the March 3, 2026, Ayawaso East parliamentary by-election projects a landslide victory for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed, with 75.3% of the votes.
The poll, conducted between February 28 and March 1, 2026, among a sample of 972 voters, carries a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±3.05%.
The final projection was published on the Facebook page of Global InfoAnalytics Executive Director Mussa Dankwah, accompanied by a visual bar chart showing the projected vote shares.
According to the survey, the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) candidate, Baba Ali Yussif, is expected to secure 21.4% of the votes, marking a significant decline of nearly 8 percentage points compared to the NPP’s performance in the 2024 general elections, where Zak Rahman garnered 29.15% (9,110 votes) against the late Naser Mahama Toure’s 70.85% (22,139 votes) for the NDC.
Independent candidate Umaru Sanda Muhammed, who reportedly defected from the NDC, is projected to receive a modest 2.7%, while Ibrahim Iddrisu trails with 0.4%, and David Kanor with 0.2%.
The by-election was triggered by the death of the sitting MP, Naser Mahama Toure, on January 4, 2026, leaving the NDC-held seat vacant.
The constituency, located in the Greater Accra Region, has historically been a stronghold for the NDC, as evidenced by the party’s dominant showing in the 2024 parliamentary race.
Global InfoAnalytics’ projection suggests the NDC not only retains the seat but improves slightly on its 2024 performance under the late MP (around 71%).
The poll comes amid active campaigning by the candidates, with ballot positions already drawn: NDC’s Baba Jamal holding number one, NPP’s Baba Ali Yussif number three, and others assigned accordingly.
Voting is scheduled for Tuesday, March 3, 2026, under the supervision of the Electoral Commission (EC).
Global InfoAnalytics has previously conducted surveys in the constituency, including pre-primary polls for the NDC that faced criticism after Baba Jamal outperformed expectations in the party’s internal contest.