Fitch Solutions has raised its forecast for Ghana’s 2026 current account surplus to 7.8% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), up from its previous projection of 5.2%.
The upward revision follows a stronger-than-expected trade performance in the first half of 2026, with Ghana recording a merchandise trade surplus of US$4.3 billion.
According to Fitch Solutions, the H1 trade surplus was significantly higher than the average of US$700 million recorded during the first halves of the 2016–2025 period.
The research arm of global ratings agency Fitch Ratings attributed the strong performance largely to robust gold exports and rising crude oil shipments, which boosted Ghana’s export earnings and strengthened its external position.
Fitch Solutions said the trade surplus exceeded its expectations, prompting it to revise its full-year current account forecast upwards.
“As such, we have revised up our 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of GDP, from 5.2% previously,” the firm said.
The revised projection indicates a stronger external position for Ghana in 2026, with export earnings expected to provide substantial support to the country’s current account.
However, Fitch Solutions expects the surplus to narrow in 2027, although it projects that Ghana’s current account balance will remain sizeable.
The firm’s outlook highlights the continued importance of commodity exports, particularly gold, to Ghana’s external position and foreign exchange earnings.
Fitch Solutions cautioned that the sustainability of the stronger external position will depend largely on the performance of commodity exports and developments in global commodity prices.